Finance and Business

Stop thinking about global warming. The real danger is climate change. So, to prove the point, 2010 has started off with some of the coldest weather we’ve seen for decades. For example, look at Florida. Miami sets a new records for cold. The last time South Florida saw snow was in 1977. And what was true for the South proved equally true the further North you moved. This had an interesting effect on fuel prices. Natural gas was suddenly more expensive and homes with heating systems using oil got a nasty shock. It’s the old story of supply and demand and, guess what, the price of crude oil was lifting gently past $80 per barrel.

So, if the natural gas supplies were under pressure and everyone wanted to stay warm, the refineries switched more production away from gas for vehicles. The result? We’re back up to $3 a gallon for premium-grade gas and the national average for unleaded is creeping up to $2.88. The economists who predict what’s going to happen to the commodities markets over the next six months are predicting the price of gas will keep on rising. Unleaded will soon tip the $3 mark. If we’re lucky, we won’t get back up to the $4 we enjoyed in 2008. We managed to get through that because it was before the recession hit and the credit crunch took away our easy money. Now the credit limits have been downsized and housing equity plans have dried up, there’s no slack left in the household budgets if all the fuel prices stay high.

In “Something’s gotta give”, Mary J. Blige captures the spirit of the current problem: “But it’s a million dollars a gallon for gas to get to work tomorrow. . . can’t swim and carpool, you rob Peter to pay Paul to make due”. With everyone still having to get to work and get everything else done, a vehicle is essential for most families. So you take the decision to keep the old car longer. Hopefully, it won’t cost too much to repair if it breaks down. That saves a monthly instalment on a loan. The only way of balancing the books on running costs if gas prices keep rising is to save money on the insurance. Read the rest of this entry »

Looking around the US economy right now, all you see is the wreckage of dreams. Homes have been foreclosed, bankruptcy looms on private debts and the retirement 401ks have taken a serious hit. Life as we knew it has been turned upside down without anything in place to catch us as we fell. So how did we get into this mess? The economists tell us we have been living beyond our means. Credit was cheap and, with banks and credit card companies raising their borrowing limits, there seemed to be nothing we could not afford. There was no need for savings. Everything could be charged. If the limit was reached, the housing equity could be released as cash. Over a period of about twenty years, we switched from a country that saves to a country that spends on credit. In the period just after World War II, we had “prudence”. People mostly paid cash for what they wanted and, if they did not have enough, they saved. It was a revolution when, suddenly, everything could be paid for in affordable monthly instalments. In one sense, this is the easiest way to get into serious debt without noticing. When you only pay a few hundred dollars every month, it hardly registers the total debt is tens of thousands.

Insurance companies were the last of the hold-outs. For years, they insisted everyone should pay them a lump sum once a year. Then, slowly, there was a cave. First it slipped to every six months, then quarterly. Now almost every company across the nation accepts monthly. What’s the problem for the insurance companies? Well, they estimate the likely total cost of the claims they will have to pay over the next twelve months and divide that amount between all the policy holders as the premium. If the company has done its sums properly and everyone pays once a year, the company always has the cash in the bank to pay out on all the claims. If people pay monthly, they can easily change to another insurer. They can miss one month’s payment when the family budget is under pressure. That means the insurer may not have enough money to pay the claims. So, to encourage all you people with some savings (or some slack on your credit cards), they offer discounts if you agree to pay every six or twelve months. It gives them more security and saves you some money. Paying monthly costs you the most. Read the rest of this entry »